On the fate of paper books is not necessarily the

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Talking about the fate of paper books may not be the same as dinosaurs

in recent years, several experts in the West said that the deadline for paper books was counted by them to minimize the impact of friction, not sooner or later in 2018. The news has terrified domestic book lovers. In addition, some physical bookstores have closed down recently due to the rise in electricity, rent, labor costs and other reasons, which has become an ominous sign of approaching death in the eyes of some book lovers. However, the real pessimists, the ancient Mayans, may not agree. According to their algorithm, next year will be the world catastrophe, and everything will disappear, not to mention books

Will paper books die out? It can be answered with certainty that it will die. In the eyes of materialists, nothing is immortal. Over time, not only the paper books will die out, but also the earth and solar system, which we rely on for survival, will die out one day. But the specific time node is a problem that cannot be discussed, because it is beyond the scope of human science. The hard answer is tantamount to forcing people to guess. For example, at this moment, the author guesses that paper books have a life of at least 1000 years, not in an instant as some people think

some people like to use the historical fact that paper will eventually replace bamboo slips to prove the prediction that paper books will soon be eliminated by e-books, but I think history just leaves a flaw here. From the appearance of paper in the Western Han Dynasty to the Sui Dynasty, which could be applied to a variety of environments and different occasions, a bamboo slip withdrew from history after taking the most independent operation mode. The two went hand in hand for about a thousand years. No matter how powerful the king of the Han Dynasty was, it would be difficult to seize the territory of paper and books that took nearly a thousand years in just five or six years. Moreover, the reason why paper replaced wooden slips occurred was that it had the two conditions of stability and economic applicability, and met the needs of wider dissemination of knowledge and information under the social conditions at that time. Only then could it be selected by the times and produce a bottom-up carrier revolution. These two conditions are not available for electronic products at present. Take iPad for example, the high price of thousands of yuan is enough to keep it away from the working class, and its average frequency of updating a generation of products in twoorthree years, let alone stability. If you want to improve the national literacy rate, a piece of paper and a pen can solve the problem. It is impossible for every school-age child to have an iPad. How much financial resources will it take? But if we can't do this, making paper books disappear is tantamount to raising the threshold of knowledge acquisition, limiting the atmosphere of information dissemination, and damaging the right of ordinary people to education. How can we get public recognition

Zhan Hongzhi, a Taiwanese publisher, said in an interview with bookish cross strait magazine that it is a small thing to turn paper books into e-books. The author's view is just the opposite. If it happens, it must be a shocking event. For example, marriage is the top priority in life. If you want to get married, you must first fall in love. Qian Zhongshu said in Fortress Besieged that borrowing a book is the prelude to love. Borrowing a book once and returning it again will give each other two opportunities to contact. How many people are destined for this life in this wonderful borrowing and returning process. If there is no paper book, how can men and women communicate their feelings to each other? You can't borrow it. What if privacy is leaked. People who have seen Feng Xiaogang's films should know that this labor has a significant role in promoting divorce

there is an English proverb: what book to read, who to be. Books convey more information than books themselves. They are not only a tool for readers to recognize society, but also a tool for society to recognize. If paper books die out, there will be less interaction channel between people and society. It is impossible to judge a person's morality, interest and ambition from whether he is holding an iPad or an iPhone. It can be seen that in addition to cultural and economic functions, books also contain certain social functions, which cannot be completely replaced by other media for the time being

any change in social behavior will not happen suddenly. Without major accidents, paper books will not have the same fate as dinosaurs. Of course, with the development of science and technology, paper books will inevitably exit slowly. As for whether the e-book announced by crpcroup, a 3D printing company standing in the center of the stage, it can only be said that it is possible, but it is uncertain, because objective existence determines that people cannot go ahead of history. Only fortune tellers dare to make assertions for the future. Unfortunately, fortune tellers are mostly nonsense

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